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Quantifying Rajon Rondo’s tradevalue
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2012/04/26 08:52AM
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Quantifying Rajon Rondo’s tradevalue
#1
2012/04/26 08:52AM
bobyluo
Boston Celtics, Trade rumors | Comments
Rajon Rondo's trade value was a hot topic again after he lit up the Knicks for 18 points, 20 assists and 17 rebounds on Sunday. (Damian Strohmeyer/SI)cheap jordans
Talk to people around the league about Rajon Rondo and you hear lots of praise followed by one overriding concern: Can the Boston point guard’s game work when he’s not surrounded by elite shooters at three (or more) positions? SI.com’s Ian Thomsen gave voice to this concern in his dead-on analysis of Rondo’s very Rondo-like triple-double on Sunday against the Knicks:
This fascinating back-and-forth afternoon raised the question of what Rondo might (or might not) be able to accomplish next season — if, say, he no longer benefits from the floor-spacing presences of Kevin Garnett (who was aggressive for his 18 points, 10 rebounds, four steals, three assists and two blocks) and Ray Allen (12 points, including five straight in transition to break open the OT), who will be free agents this summer. If Rondo isn’t surrounded by such tremendous shooters, will his production suffer? If a pass-first point guard like Rondo isn’t winning games, which might very well be the case here next season, will his value necessarily decrease? If that’s going to happen, then obviously the Celtics ought to be seeking trades sooner than later.
As Thomsen notes, Rondo has played nearly every crucial minute of the last four seasons, save for the last three months of 2008-09, with Hall of Fame-level snipers at shooting guard and both forward positions. The Celtics’ shooting level has jumped this season, with Brandon Bass replacing a good chunk of minutes the team has historically given to non-shooting centers, such as Kendrick Perkins, cheap nike jordans
Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal. Rondo is still a below-average shooter, especially for a guard, and he cannot space the floor alone. It’s fair to wonder how Rondo might fit on a roster with lesser shooters at one or two positions.
As an aside, the most ardent Rondo-backers will argue that he is an adequate jump shooter based on Hoopdata’s numbers, which show that he is shooting 41 percent this season on long two-point jumpers — just above the league average of about 40 percent. This, of course, is a preposterous argument. If Dirk Nowitzki got the same kind of long two-point looks that defenses give Rondo, he might make 75 percent of them. Defenses ignore Rondo beyond 15 feet, mucking up Boston’s spacing, and hitting 42 percent of shots worth two points instead of three does not amount to punishing those defenses. Rondo has attempted just 17 three-pointers all season. He has improved his shooting gradually, but he remains a subpar outside shooter, and that carries larger consequences for Boston.But there is a flip side to these concerns about Rondo’s potential fit on other rosters, and that flip side points to some of the challenges of using even the most advanced statistics we have to analyze basketball players — cheap jordans
challenges the NBA’s brightest stat gurus brought up over the weekend at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference. That flip side: How might Rondo do if you surrounded him with younger players more capable of creating their own shots?
Boston’s roster provides Rondo with shooting he badly needs, but as the talent surrounding him has aged, it no longer provides him with enough reliable secondary shot creation. Track the Celtics’ offense from 2009-10 through today, and you’ll see a gradual decrease in the percentage of shots it gets from isolation plays, transition chances and post-up plays, and a corresponding increase in its reliance on spot-up jumpers, according to Synergy Sports. Go back to 2007-08 and 2008-09, the last season in which Boston had an above-average offense, and I’d bet the numbers trend a bit further the same way. (SI.com’s version of Synergy does not go back that far.)
The changes are incremental, not huge, but the result is an offense too dependent on Rondo’s off-the-dribble creativity in the half court, and one that will struggle this season to crack the league’s top 20 in points per possession — the best scoring metric we have.
You can track the changes on the individual level, too. Two season ago, Paul Pierce got 20.5 percent of his offense via isolation plays and nearly 16 percent via transition, and ranked near the top of the league in points per possession on each shot type. Those numbers are down to 16 percent and 12 percent this season, jordans on sale
respectively, and though Pierce remains a productive one-on-one player, he increasingly relies on getting good post position or using screens to free him up. Garnett is still an effective post player, but he is no longer a nightly back-to-the-basket threat.
Garnett has basically vanished as a transition scoring option. Allen, an important pick-and-roll release valve in prior seasons, has shot just 10-of-40 out of the pick-and-roll this season, per Synergy. Overall, only five teams devote fewer of their possessions to isolation than Boston. (The teams, if you’re interested: San Antonio, Orlando, Utah, Chicago and Phoenix.)
Isolations aren’t necessarily good, and the Celtics have never had much use for them during the Big Four era. But they are part of an across-the-board drop-off in individual creativity around Rondo.
In other words, Rondo might be blessed with dreamy shooters everywhere, but his burden to create looks for those shooters has probably grown too large. Who’s to say Rondo wouldn’t thrive if you gave him a bit less shooting and a bit more off-the-dribble help?
At the Sloan conference over the weekend, Mike Zarren, the Celtics’ assistant general manager and resident numbers guy, talked about the folly of ranking players against each other when thinking about trades. There is no discussion, Zarren said, about, “Who’s better — Player X or Player Y?” I suspect most front-office personnel around the league would agree. Individual talent is crucial, obviously, but basketball is also about roster fit. It’s hard to quantify the “What if?” questions about how Player X would fit with Roster Y, and though the smartest teams are trying to model this kind of thing statistically in more sophisticated ways than most would imagine, there are limits to what those models can tell us before Player X enters his new locker room. Every NBA stats guy recognizes this and will happily talk about the importance of traditional scouting, team chemistry, talent-blending, personalities, conditioning and all the other variables that are harder to measure with advanced metrics.
This is why it is maddening to hear numbers skeptics, from Jon Gruden to Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke, continue to take down the theoretical numbers guy who doesn’t watch games and believes numbers can tell us everything. This is a straw man who does not exist in any meaningful way. No serious numbers guy thinks he can figure out basketball without watching games or talking to top personnel gurus. There are lots of things that need to happen for advanced metrics to begin influencing on-court decisions in more positive and powerful ways. One obvious step is for the participants in this discussion and the media covering it to talk about the subject in more nuanced ways. The anti-stats people need to learn more, the stats people need to stop wasting so much time (understandably) defending themselves against silly “attacks,” and those of us writing about “advanced stats” must do better to differentiate between various types of advancements — pace-related stats, versions of plus/minus, visual tracking data and other stuff.
It would help if teams could talk more candidly in public about what exactly they are doing, but that ship has sailed.
Back to Rondo: There is no evidence that the Celtics are “aggressively” shopping him, or even shopping him at all. Air Jordans Shoes
But thinking about how such an unusual player might fit outside of Boston is a very complex exercise.
Rajon Rondo's trade value was a hot topic again after he lit up the Knicks for 18 points, 20 assists and 17 rebounds on Sunday. (Damian Strohmeyer/SI)cheap jordans
Talk to people around the league about Rajon Rondo and you hear lots of praise followed by one overriding concern: Can the Boston point guard’s game work when he’s not surrounded by elite shooters at three (or more) positions? SI.com’s Ian Thomsen gave voice to this concern in his dead-on analysis of Rondo’s very Rondo-like triple-double on Sunday against the Knicks:
This fascinating back-and-forth afternoon raised the question of what Rondo might (or might not) be able to accomplish next season — if, say, he no longer benefits from the floor-spacing presences of Kevin Garnett (who was aggressive for his 18 points, 10 rebounds, four steals, three assists and two blocks) and Ray Allen (12 points, including five straight in transition to break open the OT), who will be free agents this summer. If Rondo isn’t surrounded by such tremendous shooters, will his production suffer? If a pass-first point guard like Rondo isn’t winning games, which might very well be the case here next season, will his value necessarily decrease? If that’s going to happen, then obviously the Celtics ought to be seeking trades sooner than later.
As Thomsen notes, Rondo has played nearly every crucial minute of the last four seasons, save for the last three months of 2008-09, with Hall of Fame-level snipers at shooting guard and both forward positions. The Celtics’ shooting level has jumped this season, with Brandon Bass replacing a good chunk of minutes the team has historically given to non-shooting centers, such as Kendrick Perkins, cheap nike jordans
Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal. Rondo is still a below-average shooter, especially for a guard, and he cannot space the floor alone. It’s fair to wonder how Rondo might fit on a roster with lesser shooters at one or two positions.
As an aside, the most ardent Rondo-backers will argue that he is an adequate jump shooter based on Hoopdata’s numbers, which show that he is shooting 41 percent this season on long two-point jumpers — just above the league average of about 40 percent. This, of course, is a preposterous argument. If Dirk Nowitzki got the same kind of long two-point looks that defenses give Rondo, he might make 75 percent of them. Defenses ignore Rondo beyond 15 feet, mucking up Boston’s spacing, and hitting 42 percent of shots worth two points instead of three does not amount to punishing those defenses. Rondo has attempted just 17 three-pointers all season. He has improved his shooting gradually, but he remains a subpar outside shooter, and that carries larger consequences for Boston.But there is a flip side to these concerns about Rondo’s potential fit on other rosters, and that flip side points to some of the challenges of using even the most advanced statistics we have to analyze basketball players — cheap jordans
challenges the NBA’s brightest stat gurus brought up over the weekend at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference. That flip side: How might Rondo do if you surrounded him with younger players more capable of creating their own shots?
Boston’s roster provides Rondo with shooting he badly needs, but as the talent surrounding him has aged, it no longer provides him with enough reliable secondary shot creation. Track the Celtics’ offense from 2009-10 through today, and you’ll see a gradual decrease in the percentage of shots it gets from isolation plays, transition chances and post-up plays, and a corresponding increase in its reliance on spot-up jumpers, according to Synergy Sports. Go back to 2007-08 and 2008-09, the last season in which Boston had an above-average offense, and I’d bet the numbers trend a bit further the same way. (SI.com’s version of Synergy does not go back that far.)
The changes are incremental, not huge, but the result is an offense too dependent on Rondo’s off-the-dribble creativity in the half court, and one that will struggle this season to crack the league’s top 20 in points per possession — the best scoring metric we have.
You can track the changes on the individual level, too. Two season ago, Paul Pierce got 20.5 percent of his offense via isolation plays and nearly 16 percent via transition, and ranked near the top of the league in points per possession on each shot type. Those numbers are down to 16 percent and 12 percent this season, jordans on sale
respectively, and though Pierce remains a productive one-on-one player, he increasingly relies on getting good post position or using screens to free him up. Garnett is still an effective post player, but he is no longer a nightly back-to-the-basket threat.
Garnett has basically vanished as a transition scoring option. Allen, an important pick-and-roll release valve in prior seasons, has shot just 10-of-40 out of the pick-and-roll this season, per Synergy. Overall, only five teams devote fewer of their possessions to isolation than Boston. (The teams, if you’re interested: San Antonio, Orlando, Utah, Chicago and Phoenix.)
Isolations aren’t necessarily good, and the Celtics have never had much use for them during the Big Four era. But they are part of an across-the-board drop-off in individual creativity around Rondo.
In other words, Rondo might be blessed with dreamy shooters everywhere, but his burden to create looks for those shooters has probably grown too large. Who’s to say Rondo wouldn’t thrive if you gave him a bit less shooting and a bit more off-the-dribble help?
At the Sloan conference over the weekend, Mike Zarren, the Celtics’ assistant general manager and resident numbers guy, talked about the folly of ranking players against each other when thinking about trades. There is no discussion, Zarren said, about, “Who’s better — Player X or Player Y?” I suspect most front-office personnel around the league would agree. Individual talent is crucial, obviously, but basketball is also about roster fit. It’s hard to quantify the “What if?” questions about how Player X would fit with Roster Y, and though the smartest teams are trying to model this kind of thing statistically in more sophisticated ways than most would imagine, there are limits to what those models can tell us before Player X enters his new locker room. Every NBA stats guy recognizes this and will happily talk about the importance of traditional scouting, team chemistry, talent-blending, personalities, conditioning and all the other variables that are harder to measure with advanced metrics.
This is why it is maddening to hear numbers skeptics, from Jon Gruden to Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke, continue to take down the theoretical numbers guy who doesn’t watch games and believes numbers can tell us everything. This is a straw man who does not exist in any meaningful way. No serious numbers guy thinks he can figure out basketball without watching games or talking to top personnel gurus. There are lots of things that need to happen for advanced metrics to begin influencing on-court decisions in more positive and powerful ways. One obvious step is for the participants in this discussion and the media covering it to talk about the subject in more nuanced ways. The anti-stats people need to learn more, the stats people need to stop wasting so much time (understandably) defending themselves against silly “attacks,” and those of us writing about “advanced stats” must do better to differentiate between various types of advancements — pace-related stats, versions of plus/minus, visual tracking data and other stuff.
It would help if teams could talk more candidly in public about what exactly they are doing, but that ship has sailed.
Back to Rondo: There is no evidence that the Celtics are “aggressively” shopping him, or even shopping him at all. Air Jordans Shoes
But thinking about how such an unusual player might fit outside of Boston is a very complex exercise.
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